Strib Varsity writers predict outcomes of top state tournament quarterfinals matchups

Strib Varsity writers predict outcomes of top state tournament quarterfinals matchups Marcus Fuller and Jim Paulsen make their predictions on the top playoff games happening Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Comment Gift Share By Jim Paulsen and Marcus Fuller The Minnesota Star Tribune November 12, 2026 at 9:00 AM Marcus went 3–2 on his playoff picks last week, improving his 2026 record to 29–18. Jim went a perfect 5–0, bringing his record to 33–14. Thursday Rosemount (7-3) vs. Prior Lake (6-4) at Maple Grove High Marcus says: Prior Lake knocking off No. 1 Moorhead was the upset nobody saw coming. The Lakers won their sixth straight game after a 0-4 start, including a victory against Shakopee. Maybe we should’ve considered the signs that the Spuds were vulnerable after injury issues. You have to give credit to Prior Lake’s game plan. Keeping it a low-scoring game and forcing turnovers was a formula for success. Now enter the Irish, who don’t rely heavily on their quarterback to throw the football. Junior Finn Macken is a solid athlete who can hurt his opponent on the ground. Rosemount’s defense held every opponent except for Shakopee and Centennial under 20 points this season. That will be the difference. Prediction: Rosemount 21, Prior Lake 17 Jim says: Prior Lake fans are probably worrying about how the Lakers will follow their momentous win. Celebrations were plentiful, but I have no doubt Prior Lake coach Matt Gegenheimer has been trying to get his guys to refocus on Rosemount, stressing to his Lakers that they have a game still to play. And Prior Lake’s victory was sure to get Rosemount’s attention, too. These two teams are largely copies of each other: Tough, hard-nosed, physical and they don’t do anything fancy, preferring to line up and take on the other guy mano-a-mano. Rosemount earned a one-point victory in an early-season meeting, 15-14. The team that makes the fewest mistakes comes out on top. Prediction: Prior Lake 17, Rosemount 14 Lakeville South (7-3) vs Minnetonka (8-2) at Eastview High Marcus says: Lakeville South scored more than 30 points against Farmington and Edina during the regular season, but those two opponents finished with a combined 1-17 record. That didn’t exactly make the strongest case for the Cougars to have a high-scoring offense. In two playoff wins, Lakeville South outscored Anoka and Mounds View 92-81 and ran for nearly 800 yards combined. The last time Minnetonka saw a rushing attack like Lakeville South’s was in a 28-21 loss to Eden Prairie, when the Skippers allowed 292 rushing yards. The Skippers have found success pressuring opposing quarterbacks this season, with 14 sacks and 11 interceptions. But Blaine ran the ball to lead 21-0 last week before Tonka’s epic comeback win. It will be tough to overcome a big deficit again. Prediction: Lakeville South 31, Minnetonka 21 Jim says: Minnetonka isn’t winning by large margins, but the Skippers are winning, and that’s what matters. Fans tend to gush over high-scoring offenses, but what really matters? Points. Who has the most at the end of the game? Lakeville South has been an offensive machine over the past two games, breaking off one big play after another on the way to 92 total points. Minnetonka’s defense has been its calling card, keeping the Skippers in games until the offense gets on track. I don’t see Minnetonka giving up the type of yards or points Lakeville South has put up over the past two weeks. Prediction: Minnetonka 31, Lakeville South 28 Hill-Murray (9-1) vs. Willmar (10-0) at Blaine High Marcus says : Hill-Murray’s streak of four consecutive Class 4A state quarterfinals appearances is something to be proud of, but not advancing past that round has been a thorn in the program’s side. The Pioneers arguably have their most balanced offensive team in years with sophomore quarterback Brayden Hartmann (24 touchdowns and two interceptions), tight end Brady Reeves (13 touchdown receptions) and tailback Grady Buettner (1,511 yards and 22 touchdowns). Can Hill-Murray’s defense keep the game from turning into a shootout? Willmar’s offense is explosive, averaging 43.9 points per game. The Cardinals aren’t as experienced at this stage, this being their first state appearance since finishing Class 4A runner-up in 2018. This game could be decided in the last few minutes. Prediction: Hill-Murray 27, Willmar 24 Jim says: Tough break for Hill-Murray to catch Willmar in the quarterfinals. It’s not the break the Pioneers were hoping for in their quest to take the field at U.S. Bank Stadium for the semifinals. Willmar is having one of the best seasons in team history behind quarterback Alex Hoppe. Running backs Hudson Sjoberg and explosive Isaac Cayler and a trio of productive receivers in Aidan Paulson, Cooper Schnichels and Nickoli Vogel pace the Cardinals. Hill-Murray can match Willmar in terms of skill-position talent, particularly tight end Brady Reeves and running back Grady Buettner. With two high-octane offenses, this might be the best matchup of the quarterfinals. Prediction: Willmar 38, Hill-Murray 34 Friday Centennial (8-2) vs. Shakopee (9-1) at Farmington High Marcus says: Centennial dominating Eden Prairie 31-13 last week would’ve been the upset everyone talked about if not for Moorhead’s loss to Prior Lake. The Cougars scored a combined 15 points in their two losses this year, including a 10-8 loss vs. Blaine on Oct. 14. Centennial has figured out a more potent scoring formula, averaging 34.7 points in its past three games. The Sabers were impressive running the ball for 300 yards against Maple Grove last week, but their defense controlled the game in a 31-0 win. Shakopee’s five Division I commits on the defensive side are looking to make another statement. Prediction: Shakopee 28, Centennial 17 ADVERTISEMENT advertisement Jim says: The way Eden Prairie had been pushing around opponents in the last stages of the season, I think Centennial’s rout of the Eagles may have been the biggest surprise last week. But the Cougars hang their hats on outmuscling foes. They delivered that lesson to Eden Prairie last week. I just don’t anticipate Shakopee putting up big scoring numbers against Centennial, but I don’t see the reverse happening, either. Both defenses are looking to make a statement. First team to score 20 wins. Prediction : Shakopee 22, Centennial 14 Monticello (10-0) vs. Bloomington Jefferson (6-4) at Forest Lake High Marcus says: How long will Monticello’s playoff magic last this season? The Magic’s most recent state tournament appearance ended with a 36-29 quarterfinal loss against Elk River in 2024. The Elks won the Prep Bowl that season. Two years later, Monticello swept Elk River in both meetings and looks like the favorite to win 5A, marking the program’s first state championship. Bloomington Jefferson probably feels like it can be the next Prior Lake to knock off the No. 1 seed. The Jaguars started the season 3-4, but they’ve won three straight games. The problem is Jefferson was outscored 97-22 against ranked opponents Cretin-Derham Hall, Mahtomedi and Hastings this year. Prediction: Monticello 38, Bloomington Jefferson 14 Related Coverage Read the recap: High school football Q&A with Jim Paulsen Football Varsity Insiders: Revealing the All-Star Game rosters Football Watch Thursday: Shaver recaps first night of state tournament quarterfinals Football Jim says: Monticello’s playoff magic? I love the clever word-play on Monticello’s nickname, Marcus. Thing is, there’s no wizardry to Monticello’s success. The Magic aren’t using parlor tricks. They’re big and talented on offense, with a line that can push people around and open space for runners Cale Holthaus, Max Lofgren and Jamal Subah and QB Carson Deibele. Deibele has depth at receiver, if necessary, in Jeron Schlangen and Johnny Moore. Bloomington Jefferson has pieced together a fine season, but this feels like a mismatch. Predict